Ottawa's benchmark home price fell 2.2 per cent between August and September. According to the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), that is the largest August to September decline in the city's MLS Home Price Index since the series began in 2005. Adjusted for the usual seasonal pattern, it still came in at 1.5 per cent, also a record for a September.
The headline most people saw said something different. Average price barely moved. Sales held steady. Those are both true, and together they hide the part that matters.
Here is what actually happened in the Ottawa market in September 2026, where the softness is concentrated, and what we are telling buyers and sellers about it right now.
Wondering what this means for your specific street? Tell us the neighbourhood and we will send you the comparable sales. Call 613-558-3294 or get in touch.
What did the Ottawa market do in September 2026?
Ottawa recorded 1,010 sales in September 2026, down 6.6 per cent from September 2025 but up 0.8 per cent from August. New listings rose 38.1 per cent from August to 2,927, against a ten year median increase of 12.9 per cent. Months of inventory moved from 4.5 to 4.8, and the sales to new listings ratio fell from 47.3 per cent to 34.5 per cent. Roughly one home sold for every three that came to market.
Those two numbers, taken together, are the September story. Demand did not collapse. Supply arrived all at once.
The average residential sale price was $685,640, down 1.0 per cent year over year and almost identical to August. The median was $625,000, down 0.8 per cent. Across July, August and September, the average price stayed inside a range of less than one per cent.
Why do the average price and the benchmark price disagree?
Average price measures the dollar value of what sold. Benchmark price measures what a consistent, representative home is worth. When the mix of sales shifts toward detached homes or higher price bands, the average holds up even while values soften underneath. That gap is exactly what Ottawa recorded in September.
The composite benchmark landed at $623,500, down 0.3 per cent from a year earlier and 2.2 per cent from August. OREB was direct about what that means: the larger decline in the index points to more underlying price softness than the average and median alone suggest.
One month does not make a trend, and OREB said that too. But if you are pricing a home this month, the benchmark is the number that describes your buyer's world, not the average.
Ottawa by property type, September 2026
| Property type | Benchmark price | Year over year | Months of inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single family | $705,100 | Nearly unchanged | 4.4 |
| Townhouse | $546,500 | Down 2.2% | 4.0 |
| Apartment | $380,800 | Down 6.1% | 7.3 |
| Composite | $623,500 | Down 0.3% | 4.8 |
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board, September 2026 release, published 5 October 2026.
Where is the Ottawa market softest right now?
Apartments, clearly and consistently. Apartment sales fell 24.8 per cent year over year to 121 transactions, and apartments accounted for more than half of the entire year over year drop in citywide sales. Months of inventory in that segment rose from 6.3 to 7.3, and the sales to new listings ratio fell from 43.0 per cent to 27.0 per cent.
Geography splits the market too. Ottawa's three suburban submarkets carried 734 sales, 72.7 per cent of everything that sold. Suburb West had the firmest conditions in the city at 3.7 months of inventory. Ottawa Centre sat at 6.8 months, with the rural submarkets between 5.8 and 6.5.
That is not one market. A detached home in Barrhaven and a one bedroom condo downtown are now in genuinely different conditions, and the citywide average describes neither of them well. If you want the local read, our neighbourhood guides break the city down community by community.
What does this mean if you are selling this fall?
It means pricing has to come off the current benchmark, not off what your neighbour got in spring. Homes sold for an average of 97.5 per cent of list price in September, down from 98.1 per cent a year earlier, and the median time on market stretched from 22 days to 27. Both are small moves. Both point the same direction.
The thing we keep repeating to sellers right now: your competition tripled in a month. With 4,813 active listings, the second highest September level since 2016, a buyer walking into your home has seen four others that weekend. Presentation and price are doing more work than they were in April.
There is a seasonal argument for patience. New listings have fallen in both October and November in each of the past ten years. If that holds, inventory thins out and absorption improves. If it does not, the softer conditions carry into winter.
Thinking about listing this fall or waiting for spring? Run the numbers first with our Ottawa mortgage and closing calculator.
What does this mean if you are buying?
More choice and more room than Ottawa buyers have had in years. One home selling for every three listed means conditions have moved toward you, particularly in apartments and in the centre and rural submarkets. Time to think, room to include conditions, and realistic negotiation are all back on the table.
Affordability is still the constraint. Borrowing costs continue to limit what buyers can carry, which is part of why absorption weakened even as supply improved. More choice is not the same as more purchasing power.
Worth knowing if you are weighing new construction: the Greater Ottawa Home Builders Association reported 464 new home sales in August, up 55.2 per cent from a year earlier, with year to date sales 50.4 per cent higher. That acceleration lines up with the expanded HST relief on qualifying new homes. We covered what that relief does, and the part most buyers miss.
What we are watching in October and November
- Whether new listings fall back the way they have in every one of the last ten autumns, or stay elevated
- Whether the sales to new listings ratio recovers from 34.5 per cent, which would mean September was mostly seasonal
- Whether the benchmark keeps declining, which is what would turn one month into an actual price adjustment
- The apartment segment, where 7.3 months of inventory is the clearest pressure point in the city
- The 26 October municipal election, since council controls development charges, zoning and the tax rate
External forecasters are pointing the same way without much drama. TD Economics expects Ontario existing home prices to average 2.6 per cent lower in 2026 and grow 0.6 per cent in 2027. RBC forecasts Canada's benchmark index down 2.3 per cent in 2026 before edging up 0.8 per cent in 2027. Different geographies, different measures, same direction: limited near term growth, gradual recovery.
The short version
Ottawa did not have a bad September. It had an uneven one. Sales were stable, prices were stable on the surface, and underneath the benchmark recorded its largest August to September decline on record while supply arrived faster than buyers could absorb it. Sellers need to price against today's benchmark rather than spring's average. Buyers have the most room they have had in years, within whatever their financing allows.
If you want to know what this means for your street rather than for the city, that is a specific question with a specific answer, and it is the conversation we have every day.
Every neighbourhood in Ottawa is moving at a different speed right now. Our neighbourhood guides break down prices, schools, transit and housing stock across 26 communities.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Ottawa housing market going down in 2026?
Ottawa prices have softened modestly rather than fallen sharply. The average sale price in September 2026 was $685,640, down 1.0 per cent year over year, while the MLS Home Price Index benchmark was $623,500, down 0.3 per cent year over year and 2.2 per cent from August. OREB describes conditions as offering buyers more choice, with limited support for rapid price growth.
Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market in Ottawa?
Ottawa sat at 4.8 months of inventory in September 2026, which is balanced territory leaning toward buyers. It varies sharply by segment and area. Suburb West recorded 3.7 months, which still favours sellers. Apartments recorded 7.3 months and Ottawa Centre 6.8, which clearly favour buyers. Your local answer depends on property type and submarket.
How long are Ottawa homes taking to sell?
The median time on market in Ottawa was 27 days in September 2026, up from 22 days in September 2025. Homes sold for an average of 97.5 per cent of their listing price, compared with 98.1 per cent a year earlier. Correctly priced homes in the suburban submarkets continue to move faster than that median suggests.
Why are Ottawa condo prices falling?
Supply is building faster than sales. Apartment sales fell 24.8 per cent year over year in September 2026, months of inventory rose from 6.3 to 7.3, and the apartment benchmark price fell 6.1 per cent year over year to $380,800. CMHC also expects Ottawa's rental market to soften as a large construction pipeline completes, which widens the options renters weigh before buying.
What should I do if my home did not sell this summer?
Reprice against the current benchmark rather than the average, and re-list with fresh photography once presentation issues are addressed. Ottawa had 4,813 active listings in September 2026, the second highest September level since 2016, so a home that stalled in July is now competing with considerably more inventory. We review stalled listings at no charge and will tell you honestly whether the issue is price, presentation or timing.
Sources: Ottawa Real Estate Board, September 2026 resale market release, published 5 October 2026; Greater Ottawa Home Builders Association new home sales, August 2026; CMHC, TD Economics and RBC forecasts as cited by OREB.
Published by The Campbell-Maric Group, an Ottawa real estate team at eXp Realty serving buyers, sellers, and investors across the National Capital Region. We cover market conditions, buying and selling strategy, neighbourhood guides, and Ontario regulatory changes, written for people who want to make informed real estate decisions. Reach us at yourhomeinottawa.ca or 613-558-3294.
